Canada’s 2025 Election Results: Liberals Secure Fourth Term Amid Trump’s Tariff Turmoil
Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has defied expectations to clinch a fourth consecutive term in Canada’s 2025 federal election, held on April 28, in a dramatic contest shaped by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies and annexation threats. With 99.7% of votes counted, the Liberals are projected to win 168 seats-just shy of a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons-while the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, trail with 144 seats. The election, which saw record voter turnout and a seismic shift in political allegiances, has global implications, including for India, which closely monitors Canada’s immigration and trade policies.
The 2025 election marked a catastrophic collapse for Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP), which plummeted from 25 seats in 2021 to a projected 7 seats, losing its official party status in Parliament. Singh, who represented Burnaby South, conceded his own seat-a shocking defeat for the Indo-Canadian leader who had positioned the NDP as a progressive alternative to the Liberals.
The party’s decline was attributed to strategic missteps, including its failure to distinguish its platform from the Liberals’ left-leaning promises on healthcare and housing. Singh’s resignation speech emphasized the need for “generational renewal” within Canada’s left, signaling a potential realignment of progressive politics. The NDP’s losses were concentrated in traditional strongholds like British Columbia and Ontario, where voters shifted to the Liberals to counter Conservative gains.
Trump’s Shadow Over Canada: How Tariffs and Threats Reshaped the Election
The election became a referendum on Canada’s response to Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canadian goods and his inflammatory remarks about annexing Canada as the “51st state.” Carney’s vow to “never yield” to U.S. pressure resonated with voters, particularly in Ontario and Quebec, where the Liberals secured critical seats. Trump’s tariffs on energy imports and accusations of Canada’s lax border controls fueled nationalist sentiment, driving undecided voters toward the Liberals. Analysts noted that Trump’s rhetoric inadvertently unified Canadians, with Carney framing the election as a choice between sovereignty and submission.
Quebec emerged as a decisive battleground, with the Liberals flipping 8 Bloc Québécois ridings, including La Prairie-Atateken and Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, to secure 43 seats in the province. The Bloc retained 23 seats, down from 32 in 2021, but maintained its influence in rural francophone regions. Analysts noted that Carney’s fluent French and emphasis on Quebec’s cultural autonomy resonated with voters, while Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet struggled to counter the Liberal surge in Montreal’s suburbs. The Liberals’ Quebec gains were critical to offsetting Conservative wins in Ontario and the Prairies, underscoring the province’s kingmaker role in Canadian federal politics.
The election saw an unprecedented spread of AI-generated deepfakes, including a viral video falsely showing Carney endorsing Trump’s annexation remarks. Canada’s Election Act, updated in 2023 to criminalize deepfakes, led to 14 prosecutions but failed to curb disinformation entirely. Legacy media outlets like CBC and The Globe and Mail gained trust, with 68% of voters relying on them for election coverage, while social media platforms faced scrutiny for amplifying divisive content. The Liberals’ proposed Digital Services Act, which mandates transparency in political ad algorithms, could reshape future campaigns, particularly in multicultural constituencies with large diasporas, including Indian-Canadians.
Key Winners and Losers: Carney’s Triumph vs. Poilievre’s Shock Defeat
Mark Carney, a former Bank of England governor who became prime minister in March 2025 after Justin Trudeau’s resignation, solidified his leadership by winning his Ottawa riding decisively. In contrast, Pierre Poilievre lost his Carleton seat after seven consecutive terms, marking a stunning upset for the Conservatives. Jagmeet Singh, the Indo-Canadian leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), also lost his Burnaby Central seat and announced his resignation after the party collapsed to just seven seats. The Bloc Québécois retained its Quebec stronghold with 23 seats, while the Green Party managed only one.
Donald Trump escalated tensions hours before polls closed, posting on Truth Social: “Canada’s resources belong to America FIRST-time to end the nonsense.” The remark drew immediate condemnation from Carney, who framed it as proof of U.S. hostility. Global leaders, including EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, praised Carney’s victory as a “win for multilateralism,” while China’s Foreign Ministry signaled interest in strengthening trade ties with Canada. The election’s anti-Trump undercurrent also influenced domestic policy debates, with Carney pledging to fast-track trade agreements with the EU and ASEAN nations to reduce reliance on the U.S., which currently accounts for 75% of Canada’s exports.
While urban centers overwhelmingly backed the Liberals, rural Canada leaned Conservative, particularly in Prairie provinces where Trump’s tariffs on Canadian wheat and canola exports sparked outrage. Farmers criticized Carney’s $2.3 billion farm aid package as “too little, too late,” with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe vowing to challenge federal agriculture policies in court. The divide was stark in Manitoba, where the Conservatives flipped 5 rural ridings but lost Winnipeg South Centre to the Liberals by a 12-point margin, underscoring the growing policy gulf between Canada’s cities and farmlands.
Voter Surge and the “Shy Conservative” Paradox
Despite pre-election polls predicting a Conservative landslide, the Liberals gained ground with a 40%+ popular vote share-their highest since 2000-while the Conservatives also hit 40%, a level unseen since 1988. This unusual surge for both major parties came at the expense of smaller parties, with the NDP’s vote share plummeting by 12 percentage points. Political scientist Abdu Ajadi attributed the result to a “shy Conservative” effect, where right-leaning voters supported Poilievre but failed to secure enough seats. Meanwhile, youth turnout spiked, driven by concerns over housing affordability and climate policies.
Preliminary data revealed a 67.35% voter turnout-the highest since 1993-driven by youth participation and concerns over Trump’s threats. Elections Canada reported 19.2 million ballots cast, including a record 7.3 million during advance polls. Notably, Gen Z and millennial voters, who prioritized climate action and housing affordability, favored the Liberals in urban centers like Toronto and Vancouver. However, Conservative gains in suburban Ontario ridings such as Richmond Hill and Brampton highlighted a growing divide between urban and suburban priorities. Analysts attributed the Conservatives’ suburban appeal to Poilievre’s focus on “cost-of-living crises,” though his anti-immigration rhetoric alienated some ethnic communities.
Canada’s $250 billion tech sector, including AI hubs in Toronto and Montreal, emerged as a silent kingmaker, with executives lobbying Carney to expand the Global Talent Stream visa program. Over 40% of Canada’s tech workforce are immigrants, predominantly from India and China. Carney’s pledge to fast-track visas for STEM professionals aligns with India’s interests, as it seeks to leverage Canada’s immigration pathways for skilled workers facing U.S. visa backlogs. However, Conservative proposals to cap international student visas-a key source of tech talent-could strain bilateral educational collaborations if revived in future debates.
Global Implications: Trade, Immigration, and India-Canada Relations
Carney’s victory signals continuity in Canada’s pro-immigration stance, which directly impacts India, the largest source of new Canadian permanent residents. However, Trump’s tariffs could disrupt supply chains affecting Indian exporters reliant on North American markets. Carney’s pledge to make Canada an “energy superpower” also raises questions about future oil and renewable energy collaborations with India. Domestically, his promise to build “millions of housing units” could attract Indian skilled workers in construction and engineering sectors.
With the Liberals projected to hold 167–169 seats, Carney faces the challenge of negotiating support from the NDP and Bloc Québécois to pass legislation. Key agenda items include a $15 billion housing initiative, retaliatory tariffs against U.S. imports, and reforms to expedite skilled immigration-a priority for India, which supplies 35% of Canada’s new permanent residents. The Bloc has demanded increased healthcare funding for Quebec, while the NDP seeks pharmacare concessions. Political scientist Lori Turnbull warned that Carney’s minority government could face instability, especially if Trump retaliates with additional tariffs, further straining Canada’s economy.
The election saw a record 12 Indigenous candidates elected, including 8 Liberals and 3 Conservatives, reflecting growing political engagement among First Nations communities. However, Carney’s refusal to halt the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion-a project opposed by many Indigenous groups-has drawn criticism. Assembly of First Nations National Chief Cindy Woodhouse called the pipeline a “betrayal,” while Conservative MPs in energy-rich Alberta defended it as critical to Canada’s economic sovereignty. The Liberals’ balancing act between Indigenous reconciliation and resource development remains a flashpoint, particularly as land rights disputes escalate in provinces like British Columbia and Ontario.
 "Shocking Twists In Canada’s 2025 Election: A Defiant Victory Against Trump’s Threats")
The Road Ahead: Coalition Challenges and a Divided Electorate
As Carney prepares to govern with a minority, his immediate focus will be negotiating with the NDP and Bloc Québécois to pass legislation. Key challenges include addressing housing shortages, mitigating Trump’s tariffs, and restoring Canada’s reputation as a stable trade partner. For India, the results offer both risks and opportunities, particularly in leveraging Canada’s skilled immigration pathways and renewable energy investments. With Trump’s threats looming large, Carney’s leadership will test whether Canada can balance sovereignty with pragmatic diplomacy in an increasingly volatile world.
The Green Party, led by Elizabeth May’s successor Jonathan Pedneault, secured just one seat-May’s former riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands-amid a broader collapse of smaller parties. Despite record wildfires in British Columbia and Alberta in 2024, climate change ranked only fourth among voter priorities, trailing housing, healthcare, and economic stability. Pedneault criticized the Liberals’ carbon tax as “symbolic gestures,” arguing that Carney’s energy superpower vision undermines Canada’s climate commitments. The Greens’ failure to capitalize on environmental concerns highlights the electorate’s focus on immediate economic pressures over long-term climate goals, even as scientists warn of accelerating ecological crises.
Follow: Elections Canada
Also Read: HMD and Lava to Launch D2M Phones in Partnership With Tejas Networks and FreeStream
