As the 2024 U.S. presidential race intensifies, historian Allan Lichtman—famed for his unbroken streak of predicting election outcomes since 1984—remains firm in his forecast that Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump, despite any potential ‘October Surprise.’
In an interview with news channel, Lichtman dismissed the long-standing myth that a last-minute, unexpected event in October could swing the election outcome. He explained, “I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise,” referring to his track record of not adjusting his forecasts due to late-breaking developments.
Lichtman, whose model is based on 13 key factors measuring the strength of incumbent governance, believes that Harris will become America’s first female president. According to Lichtman, eight of these factors favor Harris, while only three work in Trump’s favor. Even potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy—such as its approach to the Gaza conflict—are unlikely to change the overall outlook.
The ‘October Surprise’ term gained popularity during the 1980 election, when Jimmy Carter’s administration failed to secure the release of American hostages in Iran. Since then, October has often brought dramatic developments aimed at influencing elections, such as the reopening of Hillary Clinton’s email investigation in 2016 or the controversy over Hunter Biden’s laptop in 2020.
Despite tight polling margins in key swing states, with Harris leading Trump by just 2% nationally, Lichtman’s model suggests that Trump will not return to the White House.
(with inputs from agencies)