Washington D.C. – China-Japan ties are entering a prolonged period of tension after newly appointed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi described a Taiwan Strait conflict as a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. Beijing seized on the remark to push its narrative and signal regional dominance, even pressing Washington to align with its position. However, beneath the diplomatic rhetoric lies a more complex reality of Japan’s increasing defense spending, strengthened military posture, and continued US competitive policy toward China on the Taiwan issue.
Legal Context of Takaichi’s Remarks
Understanding the recent diplomatic spat requires grasping the context around Takaichi’s statements on a potential Taiwan Strait conflict. Under Japan’s security legislation, declaring a situation “survival-threatening” legally allows the government to activate collective self-defense mechanisms. The controversy stems from Takaichi’s comments regarding a hypothetical scenario of a Taiwan blockade. She stated that if American forces attempted to break the blockade, Japan could use force to work alongside them in the Taiwan Strait conflict scenario. Critically, she was not discussing Japan independently deploying forces or waging war over Taiwan.
Historical Precedent in Japanese Leadership
Takaichi is not the first Japanese leader to articulate such a position on a Taiwan Strait conflict. In 2021, then-Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso made a similar comment at a fundraising event in Tokyo. The same year, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared that a Taiwan contingency would constitute a Japan contingency. These statements establish a pattern of Japanese political leadership recognizing the direct security implications of any Taiwan Strait conflict for Japanese national interests and regional stability.
China’s Multifaceted Response Strategy
The Chinese response to Takaichi’s Taiwan Strait conflict remarks entailed repeated public admonishment, soliciting other states’ endorsement of its position, curtailing people-to-people ties, economic coercion, and direct threats. While demanding that Takaichi retract her comments, the Chinese side has engaged in a sustained disinformation campaign to shape the global narrative and policy orientation on Taiwan. Chinese commentators have argued that Takaichi’s remarks indicate a desire to revive Japanese “militarism” and pose “a grave threat to peace in the Taiwan Strait and to regional security and stability.”
Beijing’s Post-War Order Narrative
Chinese officials and commentators have contended that the PRC’s sovereignty over Taiwan is an outcome of the post-World War II international order, which must not be undermined regarding any Taiwan Strait conflict scenario. This was the argument that Chinese President Xi Jinping underscored to US President Donald Trump in their recent call. Beijing seeks to frame Taiwan as fundamentally a question of upholding the international order established after World War II, attempting to delegitimize alternative perspectives on the island’s status.
Trump-Takaichi Call and Speculation
Soon after the Xi-Trump call, some observers argued that China was establishing a new dynamic with the US as a partner in promoting its vision of the post-War order concerning the Taiwan Strait conflict. The fact that Trump called Takaichi soon after his conversation with Xi added weight to this perspective. Reporting suggests the Taiwan issue was discussed during the call, although the Japanese government has denied this. Whatever the scope of discussion, believing the US is being co-opted by Beijing into its worldview around the Taiwan issue is foolhardy.
US Economic Priorities Versus Strategic Competition
What is likely occurring is that the Trump administration is interested in sustaining positive momentum in the broader US-China relationship for now regarding the Taiwan Strait conflict dynamics. Trump is clearly keen on easing domestic pressures on the farm sector and arriving at some broader economic agreement. Trump’s recap of the call and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s summary indicate this economic focus. However, this does not mean Trump or the administration does not view the China relationship through a competitive lens. Rather, Washington is prioritizing immediate economic interests while maintaining strategic vigilance.
Beijing’s Crisis Manufacturing Strategy
Beijing is seeking to leverage the moment and gain tangible acquiescence on its position regarding the Taiwan Strait conflict. For this purpose, it will use opportunities presented to manufacture crises and gain concessions. This has been a pattern of Chinese behavior over recent years as it has sought to expand its red-lines, limiting others’ ability to engage with Taiwan. Beijing understands that if the US is seen as shifting and dithering on Taiwan, it will heighten anxieties of America’s regional allies.
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Japan’s Defense Buildup Accelerates
Trump wants allies and partners to spend more on defense and share greater burden. Consequently, they are committing greater defense spending and capability development. Japan is on track to expand its defense budget to 2% of GDP well ahead of schedule in response to Taiwan Strait conflict concerns. Additionally, Japan is moving ahead to deploy Type 03 Chu-SAM missiles on Yonaguni island near Taiwan. The US has also steadily intensified military drills with Japan, with some exercises reportedly rehearsing joint operational plans for a Taiwan Strait conflict.
Actions Trump Rhetoric in Strategic Balance
These tangible actions impact the balance of power more than words. As much as there is anxiety around US policy regarding the Taiwan Strait conflict, Trump’s administration approved $1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan in November, and days later, weapons worth $11 billion to Taipei. These substantive developments matter much more than diplomatic rhetoric. The combination of increased Japanese defense capabilities, continued US arms sales to Taiwan, and joint military exercises demonstrates that despite economic engagement with Beijing, the strategic competition continues unabated.
The Taiwan Strait conflict remains a critical flashpoint where actions by the US, Japan, and China will determine regional security dynamics far more than diplomatic statements or economic negotiations.
