As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares for his upcoming meeting with US President Donald Trump in February, India faces a five-fold challenge in shaping the future of its diplomatic ties with the US. The timing of Modi’s visit is symbolic, reflecting India’s growing importance in US geopolitics. The visit is set against the backdrop of bipartisan support for India in the US, as Modi had been one of President Biden’s last guests and now, will be one of President Trump’s first guests. However, the success of this visit will be evaluated through a series of diplomatic lenses that test India’s current global strategy.
The Five-Fold Test for India-US Relations
1. Strategic Convergence in Indo-Pacific and West Asia
The first challenge revolves around strengthening India-US strategic relations, particularly in the Indo-Pacific and West Asia. Both nations have shared concerns regarding China’s growing influence and a desire to foster peace in the Saudi-Israel conflict. The visit should focus on enhancing collaboration in these regions, and also exploring a unified stance on resolving the Ukraine conflict.
2. Addressing Sensitive Bilateral Issues
While there is convergence on strategic goals, there are underlying trade, immigration, and defense issues that may cloud the meeting. A delicate discussion must be conducted behind closed doors, ensuring that differences in trade relations, defense contracts, and immigration policies don’t spill into public discourse. Trump’s approach often lacks discretion, making this dialogue particularly challenging.
3. Managing Domestic Backlash
Modi’s challenge will be balancing India’s diplomatic outreach while mitigating domestic political repercussions. For instance, issues like legal migration and trade disputes are sensitive for both the Indian diaspora and business communities. India must ensure that it delivers politically viable outcomes to Trump, such as addressing his demands for trade policies and defense deals, without causing damage to Modi’s base back home.
4. Building Trust Amid Changing Geopolitical Dynamics
The nature of trust between India and the US is still evolving, particularly concerning China’s role. India must find ways to enhance trust by engaging in clear, transparent dialogue regarding China. While the US has sent mixed signals about its China policy, India has been proactive in normalizing its own approach towards China. The visit must prioritize open discussions on China, with both nations determining how best to manage their stances in a volatile geopolitical landscape.
5. Reassuring Tech and Business Partners
A key diplomatic priority will be reassuring critical tech and business constituencies in both nations. The AI race, semiconductors, and supply chain diversification beyond China are areas where both countries have shared interests. The challenge lies in aligning India’s ambitions to grow its tech ecosystem with the US’s desire to maintain global dominance. Furthermore, Trump’s push for greater defense purchases from India could put a strain on technology transfer agreements, which could hinder deeper defense cooperation.
Addressing India’s Value in the US
In addition to these five diplomatic challenges, India faces a deeper issue of public perception in the US. While India’s contributions to global markets, pharmaceuticals, and technology are substantial, these are often overlooked in Trump’s worldview, which is more focused on direct economic returns. To strengthen this bilateral relationship, India must strategically highlight its economic, technological, and human capital contributions to the US.
- Indian Students: Indian students contribute over $10 billion annually to the US economy, a key factor that needs to be emphasized during Modi’s visit.
- Indian Companies: With over 163 Indian companies investing $40 billion in the US, India’s role as an economic partner needs greater visibility.
- Defense and Technology: India’s growing defense collaboration with the US, particularly through investments in life sciences and technology, is another critical area for strategic communication.
The Role of Indian Diplomacy
India’s diplomatic strategy must also include effective communication to the American public. India’s role in the Indo-Pacific and as a strategic partner to the US should be communicated in a way that resonates across various political spectrums in the US, whether through the lens of defense, economics, or cultural diplomacy.
India needs to broaden its diplomatic engagement to conservative and progressive American audiences, showing how its contributions align with US interests, without diminishing the importance of American leadership.
Looking Ahead
As Prime Minister Modi heads to Washington, the success of his visit will depend not only on fostering deeper diplomatic and economic ties but also on reshaping how India is perceived in the US. The strategic focus must balance economic collaborations, technological advancements, and defense partnerships, while ensuring trust-building around China. With the US administration’s shifting priorities and public demands, India must effectively communicate its value proposition to US leadership and the broader American public, ensuring that the visit sets a positive tone for future cooperation.
