Washington D.C. – Former CIA officer John Kiriakou, who served for 15 years including a stint as chief of CIA counterterrorism operations in Pakistan, has issued a stark assessment about any potential Pakistan India war. According to Kiriakou, Pakistan needs to reach a policy conclusion that nothing beneficial would emerge from conflict with India, emphasizing that Pakistan would inevitably lose in a conventional military confrontation.
“Nothing, literally nothing good will come of an actual war between India and Pakistan because the Pakistanis will lose. It’s as simple as that,” Kiriakou stated in a recent interview. His assessment of a Pakistan India war focuses specifically on conventional military capabilities, setting aside the nuclear dimension that often dominates discussions about South Asian security.
Conventional Military Balance Assessment
Kiriakou’s analysis of a potential Pakistan India war emphasizes the disparity in conventional military capabilities between the two nations. “They’ll lose. And I’m not talking about nuclear weapons—I’m talking just about a conventional war,” he clarified, highlighting the significant advantage India holds in traditional military power.
The former CIA officer’s assessment of the Pakistan India war scenario suggests that Pakistani military leadership should understand this reality and avoid constant provocations. “There is no benefit to constantly provoking Indians,” Kiriakou emphasized, pointing to the futility of military posturing given the conventional imbalance.
Pentagon’s Alleged Nuclear Control
In a startling revelation related to the Pakistan India war dynamics, Kiriakou disclosed that during his posting in Pakistan in 2002, he was told unofficially that the Pentagon controlled Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. This claim adds a crucial dimension to understanding the Pakistan India war equation and regional nuclear deterrence.
“I was told unofficially that the Pentagon controlled the Pakistani nuclear arsenal and that India did not know about it,” Kiriakou revealed. This alleged arrangement, if accurate, would significantly alter calculations about escalation risks in any Pakistan India war scenario.
Kiriakou expressed doubt that American officials ever informed India about this purported nuclear control arrangement. “I doubt that the Americans ever told India that the control of Pakistani nukes also lies with the US because of the vociferousness with which the Pakistanis have publicly maintained that they control their own nuclear weapons,” he explained.
India’s Resolute Counter-Terror Stance
The former CIA officer’s discussion of the Pakistan India war potential also addressed India’s firm position against terrorism and nuclear blackmail. According to Kiriakou, India has made clear it will not tolerate Pakistan’s nuclear threats and will respond decisively to any terror attacks emanating from Pakistani territory.
India’s actions following terror incidents demonstrate this resolve in ways that shape the Pakistan India war calculus. Kiriakou referenced several significant Indian military operations that have altered the regional security landscape and demonstrated India’s willingness to conduct cross-border operations.
Historical Indian Military Operations
In examining factors that would influence any Pakistan India war, Kiriakou highlighted India’s track record of strong action against terror infrastructure. The 2016 surgical strikes on terror launchpads across the Line of Control marked a significant shift in India’s operational doctrine, demonstrating willingness to conduct precision operations in Pakistani-controlled territory.
The Balakot airstrikes in 2019 represented another escalation in India’s response capabilities relevant to Pakistan India war scenarios. These airstrikes, conducted deep inside Pakistani territory following the Pulwama attack, showed India’s enhanced reach and determination to target terror infrastructure regardless of geographical constraints.
Most recently, Operation Sindoor targeted terror infrastructure, further establishing India’s pattern of decisive responses. These operations collectively demonstrate that in any Pakistan India war scenario, India possesses both capability and political will to conduct offensive operations.
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The AQ Khan Factor
Kiriakou’s insights into nuclear proliferation also touch upon factors relevant to Pakistan India war dynamics. While working on counterterrorism, his CIA colleague dealt with Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani nuclear physicist central to Pakistan’s weapons program.
The former CIA officer revealed that the United States could have eliminated AQ Khan using Israeli-style targeted operations, but refrained due to Saudi Arabian intervention. “He had the support of the Saudi government, which wanted him to be left alone,” Kiriakou disclosed, highlighting the complex international dimensions surrounding Pakistan’s nuclear program.
This protection of AQ Khan, despite his role in nuclear proliferation, reflects the geopolitical complexities that would surround any Pakistan India war and international efforts to manage or prevent such a conflict.
Whistleblower Background
Kiriakou’s credibility in discussing Pakistan India war scenarios stems from his extensive CIA experience. He spent the first half of his career in intelligence analysis and the second half in counterterrorism operations, providing him with both strategic and tactical perspectives on South Asian security.
In 2007, Kiriakou became a whistleblower, exposing the CIA’s torture program in a televised interview. This revelation led to legal charges that were later dropped, establishing his track record as someone willing to share uncomfortable truths about classified operations and policies.
Strategic Implications for Regional Security
The Pakistan India war assessment provided by Kiriakou has significant implications for regional stability. His insider perspective suggests that Pakistani military planners understand their conventional disadvantage, which may explain Pakistan’s emphasis on nuclear deterrence and asymmetric warfare through terror proxies.
For India, Kiriakou’s analysis validates the military modernization programs and operational doctrines developed over recent decades. The conventional superiority in any Pakistan India war scenario provides India with options for responding to provocations while maintaining escalation control.
International Mediation Role
The revelations about Pentagon control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, if accurate, suggest that American involvement in managing Pakistan India war risks extends beyond diplomatic mediation to direct control of strategic weapons systems. This arrangement would provide an additional safeguard against nuclear escalation in any conventional Pakistan India war.
However, the secrecy surrounding such arrangements also creates risks, as India’s strategic calculations might differ if Delhi were fully aware of American control mechanisms over Pakistani nuclear weapons. The Pakistan India war scenario thus remains complicated by incomplete information and strategic ambiguity.
