Janata Dal Set to Hold Ground in Bihar Assembly Elections

Janata Dal (United)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar appears poised to retain power in the upcoming assembly elections, according to the latest JVC Poll opinion survey released on Saturday. The survey indicates that the NDA could secure between 120 to 140 seats in the 243-member Bihar assembly, signaling a likely continuation of the current alliance’s governance.

The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is projected to win 93 to 112 seats, making the contest closer than expected but still in favor of the ruling coalition. Within the NDA, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is forecast to emerge as the single largest party with 70 to 81 seats, while Janata Dal (United) may secure 42 to 48 seats. Smaller allies such as LJP (RV) could win 5 to 7, HAM(S) might take 2, and RLM may manage 1 to 2.

On the opposition side, RJD is expected to lead with 69 to 78 seats, followed by Congress with 9 to 17, and CPI(ML) likely securing 12 to 14. The CPI and CPM could each win around 1 to 2 seats, while other regional parties, including AIMIM and BSP, may collectively gain 8 to 10 seats.

Janata Dal’s Alliance Strength and Shifting Voter Dynamics

The opinion poll also reflects evolving voter sentiment in Bihar. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which entered the political scene with promises of reform, might secure only a single seat, showing limited influence in its debut attempt.

In terms of popularity for the Chief Minister’s post, Tejashwi Yadav leads with 33% support, followed by Nitish Kumar at 29%, indicating that Janata Dal (United) still holds a strong personal influence through its veteran leader. Chirag Paswan and Prashant Kishor are tied at 10% each, while Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary trails slightly at 9%. About 5% of respondents expressed support for other candidates within the MGB or the BJP.

The survey also shows that the NDA’s overall vote share could range between 41% and 43%, whereas the MGB may receive 39% to 41%, keeping the competition tight. Smaller regional outfits could collectively account for 10% to 11% of the total votes, reflecting Bihar’s complex political fabric.

Janata Dal’s Historical Influence and Role in Governance

The Janata Dal (United) has played a decisive role in shaping Bihar’s political and developmental landscape. Led by Nitish Kumar, the party’s governance model, emphasizing infrastructure, education, and law and order, continues to influence voter loyalty.

In the 2020 Assembly Elections, the BJP contested 110 seats and won 74, while JD(U) contested 115 and won 43 seats. Despite a reduced seat count then, Janata Dal (United) maintained a strong coalition partnership, ensuring stability in the NDA government.

The Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) won 4 out of 7 seats in the previous polls, contributing to the NDA’s majority. With voter sentiment now slightly favoring BJP within the alliance, JD(U)’s disciplined cadre and grassroots presence remain vital for mobilizing rural support, especially in districts where Nitish Kumar’s developmental schemes have shown tangible results. Also Read:

Election Schedule and Growing Anticipation in Bihar

The Election Commission has announced that Bihar’s 243 Assembly seats will go to polls in two phases November 6 and November 11, with vote counting scheduled for November 14. The latest voter list reveals 7.42 crore electors, a slight drop from 7.89 crore earlier this year, following a cleanup that removed 65 lakh duplicate or invalid entries.

The anticipation around this election is high as it will decide whether the Janata Dal (United) and its NDA allies can extend their governance, or if the Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav, can regain lost ground. The campaign is expected to revolve around governance, employment, and welfare schemes that directly impact Bihar’s rural base. Also Read: At Andhra Temple Tragedy Claims 9 Lives, Heartbreaking Scenes from Srikakulam

Conclusion

The JVC Poll suggests that Janata Dal (United) and the NDA still command a strong position in Bihar’s political arena, driven by the stability and familiarity of Nitish Kumar’s leadership. While Tejashwi Yadav’s rising popularity signals a growing challenge, the numbers indicate that JD(U)’s alliance strategy continues to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate. As Bihar moves closer to polling day, the balance between experience and change will define the state’s next chapter.