Round 2 of the triple header, in between the 3-way fight for constructors title, Formula 1 arrives in Mexico. The top 3- McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari are separated by a mere 48 points. Five Grand Prix still to go, closely matched teams, championship could slip to anywhere. Red Bull’s Max Verstappen has a lead in drivers but it is not 100% safe. For constructors, McLaren and Ferrari have strongest driver pairing while Red Bull is pulled by Max alone.
At the previous grand prix in Austin, US, Ferrari had a dominating 1-2 while Verstappen and Lando Norris were involved in tense and controversial duel for the 3rd place on the podium. Verstappen ultimately secured 3rd after Norris received a controversial penalty in dying laps.
Mexico GP Preview
- Upgrades
With F1 2024 about to reach its conclusion and cars reaching absolute peak of their development cycle, it is less likely to see major upgrades. Some teams like McLaren, Red Bull and Mercedes might bring minor changes to sort out their issues. While Ferrari delayed its upgrades at Austin to evaluate Monza and Singapore packages. Ferrari might tweak aerodynamics of the SF-24 or may look to improve its qualifying pace.
- Track Analysis
The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, has its own set of unique characteristics and challenges for drivers and cars. Located at almost 2.2 km above sea level, the air density here is low. It affects the aerodynamics and engine power of the car. Due to its low density, the air entering the internal combustion engine is significantly low, which is then compensated by the Turbo. It adds extra load on the Turbo. Overheating is inevitable if the driver is not careful. Thin air density affects cooling as well. Several crucial parts like brakes, power unit rely on air cooling. Braking systems go through violent decelerations, and need air for their cooling. This track tests the reliability of the cars.
Now it comes to the layout. By looking at long straights, a low downforce setup (like Monza) is expected. This is where this track tricks you. Teams opt for Monaco like high downforce setup. Mexico has its fair share of straights, high speed and low speed corners. But its the air that makes the difference. Even though power units don’t run at their peak potential here, the cars still reach speeds of 350 km/h. Thanks to the low density, drag is less effective and the need for more downforce to keep the car grounded around the corner arises. This 4.3km circuit consists of 17 turns varying in shapes and speeds, testing drivers and cars in million ways.
The first sector consists of a gigantic 1.2km straight to a heavy braking zone at turn 1, which is first of the double chicanes. The second sector is most technical, unforgiving and infamous for accidents. Slow speed corners (4-6) lead to a series of high speed corners in tandem, bringing the car’s aerodynamics in play. Downforce and stability is the lifeline here. The third and final sector goes through stadium section, a tricky slow speed turn 13, and the final corner- turn 17 leads back to the long straight to turn 1. It has 2 DRS zones aiding high speed here.
- Weather
As for the weather, chances of rain is 20% for race and similar for qualifying on Saturday. Temperature is expected to revolve around 20-25 degree celsius (highest), 11-12 degree celsius (lowest). The conditions for Sunday to be a bit cloudier and cooler than Saturday with an increasing chance of showers in the afternoon due to daily convection. Light northerly wind are anticipated.
- What to Expect
Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is different from the COTA, Austin. Same cannot be expected here. However, COTA is believed to be the track that illustrates strengths and weaknesses of a car. Keeping that in mind, it will be a close call between McLaren and Ferrari. Red Bull’s car performs differently with different tyre compounds and is a proven tyre killer. Yet, Max Verstappen cannot be ruled out of contention especially after Austin upgrades were received positively by the drivers. Verstappen was strong in his first stint compared to McLarens of Norris and Piastri but plunged in the latter half.
Mexican GP is Sergio Perez’s home race, and the Red Bull driver will look to regain his lost mojo in front of his home crowd. His form is not only crucial for Red Bull’s constructors fight but also for his own future. He has not been on the podium since China, and the only strong weekend in Baku was stigmatised with his late crash with Carlos Sainz. If Perez fails again, Ferrari is for sure taking p2 from Red Bull this weekend. For Ferrari, only problem is their typical bad luck/run after a series of strong performances.
Also Read: Engine partner Honda pushes Red Bull to sign Yuki Tsunoda
Mercedes endured a difficult weekend at US. Both of their drivers spun at the same spot. Lewis Hamilton was eliminated in Q1 and spun out and retired from the race on lap 2. Though George Russell recovered from pitlane start to a respectable p6 in the race. Mercedes is in no man’s land in constructors. They will only look to close the gap to top 3 which could improve their chances.
Similar case is with Aston Martin. They are not challenging neither are challenged by anyone. Upgrades at Austin didn’t work, like it has always been the case with Aston Martin. Fernando Alonso can bring in few points except that nothing can be expected.
Haas and VCARB are battling it out for 6th in constructors. Though Haas leads the fight, RB cannot be taken lightly. RB was comfortably at 6th once, however questionable strategies and failed upgrades hampered their chances. Liam Lawson, who replaced Daniel Riccardo, at Austin, is the driver to watch out for. The rookie started from back of the grid (due to power unit penalties) and recovered to p9, proving why Red Bull has so much faith in him. He also had an interesting duel with 2-time champion Fernando Alonso during the weekend and came out on top.
For Alex Albon, every race from now on will define his career. He has a reputation of being weak against strong teammates. It was clearly visible during his Red Bull days alongside Max Verstappen, and now his new rookie teammate Franco Colapinto is outperforming him. When Albon was paired against Nicholas Latifi and Logan Sargeant, he decimated them. Though none of Latifi or Sargeant can be counted as strong teammates. Franco was nowhere near contention until Williams boss James Vowels pulled the trigger on Logan Sargeant. Franco is a smaller and temporary threat. A much bigger challenged named Carlos Sainz will arrive next year. Sainz a top driver, race winner with excellent race-craft and a tactical genius is the strongest teammate Albon will face after Verstappen. Albon’s tendency to complain after hard racing does not help his case either. Like recently when he complained of Franco’s divebomb at the Singapore GP. He needs to up his game or lose his seat to Franco maybe in 2026. Franco Colapinto in limited opportunities showed what he is capable of and Vowels won’t let go a talent like this. His performances also indicate that the Williams car was not as bad as it looked.
Alpine and Sauber, the bottom two teams in the standings failed to score in Austin despite bringing upgrades. Alpine at least had few races where they scored points and could challenge Williams for p8 in standings. Sauber on the other hand has been the outright slowest team and the only team with 0 points. To make things worse, their strategies and pitstops spoils any good race they have once in a while. Pierre Gasly pulled off a blinder for Alpine last race.The Frenchman then had 6.9 seconds pitstop ruining his race.
The matter will remain between the title contenders. Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc have difficult but mathematically possible shot at the drivers championship. With the grid being so close, and difficult conditions, this race will be won on strategy, skills and controlled aggression of the drivers. The fastest car or driver might not win if they end up cooking their tyres or power unit components. While the midfield has been chaotic and closely matched. The Haas, RB and Williams battle for final points position is the one to look out for.
Predictions:
Top 5 in Qualifying:
- Lando Norris
- Max Verstappen
- Charles Leclerc
- Oscar Piastri/Carlos Sainz
- George Russell
Top 5 in Race:
- Charles Leclerc
- Max Verstappen
- Lando Norris/Carlos Sainz
- Lando Norris/Oscar Piastri
- George Russell
One of the top teams will possibly have a disaster, and the race will be interrupted by a safety car. Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson will outperform their respective teammates once again. Sergio Perez will have a decent weekend though he won’t challenge anyone except one Mercedes.
Also Read: Amid uncertain future, Perez is haunted by his father’s health
(Input from the agencies)
