Mumbai, India: Indian stock markets are poised for a positive start on March 3, 2025, as indicated by GIFT Nifty futures trading approximately 85 points above the previous close. This suggests a favorable opening for benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50. However, mixed global cues and ongoing Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) selling continue to raise concerns among investors.
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Global Market Overview
Asian markets exhibited mixed trends on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei advanced by 1.1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures indicated a subdued start. South Korean markets remained closed due to a public holiday. In the United States, major indices closed higher on Friday, driven by gains in technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.39% to 43,840.91 points, the S&P 500 increased by 1.59% to 5,954.50 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.63% to 18,847.28 points.
Domestic Economic Indicators
India’s economy grew by 6.2% in the October-December 2024 quarter, primarily due to increased government and consumer spending. This growth rate aligns with market expectations and offers a positive outlook for investors. However, the fiscal deficit for April-January 2024-25 reached ₹11.70 lakh crore, accounting for 74.5% of the annual target, up from ₹11.03 lakh crore (63.6%) in the same period last year. Additionally, Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in February 2025 increased by 9.1% year-on-year, totaling ₹1.83 lakh crore.
FPI Selling Pressure
Despite positive domestic indicators, sustained selling by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remains a concern. On Friday, FPIs sold ₹116.39 billion ($1.33 billion) worth of Indian shares, marking the highest single-day selling in three months. This trend has contributed to the recent market downturn and continues to weigh on investor sentiment.
Impact of Global Trade Policies
Global trade uncertainties, particularly U.S. tariff policies under President Trump, have added to market volatility. The announcement of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has heightened concerns about a potential global trade war, affecting investor confidence worldwide.
Commodity Market Movements
In the commodities market, crude oil prices rebounded after last week’s decline. Brent crude oil rose by 0.99% to $73.53 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 0.97% to $70.44 per barrel. Gold prices also saw an uptick, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and escalating trade tensions. Spot gold increased by 0.3% to $2,868.29 per ounce, and U.S. gold futures climbed 1.1% to $2,880.70 per ounce.
Outlook for the Indian Stock Market
While positive domestic growth data provides some relief, the combination of mixed global cues and persistent FPI selling suggests that market volatility may continue in the short term. Investors are advised to monitor global developments closely and exercise caution in their investment decisions.
Conclusion
As Indian stock markets prepare for a potentially positive opening on March 3, 2025, investors must navigate a complex landscape shaped by domestic economic indicators, global trade policies, and FPI activity. Staying informed and adopting a cautious approach will be essential in managing investments during this period of uncertainty.
