Syria is facing one of its most critical moments in recent years as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a breakaway faction of al-Qaeda, launched a surprise offensive on Aleppo last week. The rebels captured the city and are now advancing toward Damascus, with over 300 insurgents killed in the fighting so far.
The rebels’ swift progress comes despite Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s efforts to rally his allies, Russia and Iran. Both countries, key backers of Assad’s regime, are stretched thin due to their involvement in other conflicts—Russia’s war in Ukraine and Iran’s support of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In response to the threat, Assad reportedly flew to Moscow for urgent consultations. Meanwhile, Iran has sent reinforcements to Syria, including fighters from the Iraqi militias Hashd al Shaabi, to support Assad’s forces. However, experts, including Joshua Landis from the University of Oklahoma, suggest that neither Russia nor Iran is fully positioned to offer the decisive support Assad needs at this juncture.
The rebels, based in the Idlib region, have made significant strides, even managing to capture military helicopters from the retreating Syrian army. Their goal is now to seize Damascus, as the Syrian military continues to falter in some regions.
The United States and its allies, including France, Germany, and the UK, have called for de-escalation and the protection of civilians, as anti-government forces press on, gaining ground in northern Syria, including the town of Tal Rifaat. Kurdish forces, who are aligned with the U.S., are working to evacuate civilians from Aleppo, fearing further violence as Turkish-backed factions close in on Kurdish-majority areas.
As the situation in Syria deteriorates, questions remain over whether Turkey’s President Erdogan is seizing the opportunity to further his agenda by targeting Kurdish separatists, potentially deepening the complexity of the ongoing conflict.
